What are my chances?
Let me get out my crystal ball.
The “what are my chances” question is not one that can be answered as I do not have enough data. One can predict the probability of matching based on Step 1 scores or a combination algorithm.
Remember one can not underestimate the importance of data. According to the NRMP 2009 data the probability of matching in Internal Medicine (IM) is 35% if you have 3 interviews, 50% if you have 5 interviews, 75% if you have 10 interviews. That makes sense you have to interview to match. Many people are lucky to get 1 interview which corresponds to a 25% chance of matching in IM.
Regarding Step 1 scores, for those who do interview in IM, the probability of matching in IM with Step 1 200 is 27%, Step 1 of 220 is 45%, 240 is 63%. Information on step 2 scores is not present as many AMGs don’t take step 2 prior to applying.
What can I do to improve my chances? Just over half (1092/2113) of those who match do not have any Abstracts, Presentations, or Publications which suggests that if you are strong enough as a candidate, publications/research don’t matter.
The views expressed in this post are those of Kenneth Christopher, MD and do not necessarily reflect the views of Dr. Christopher’s employer Partners HealthCare.
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