What are my chances?

August 8, 2011

Let me get out my crystal ball.

The “what are my chances” question is not one that can be answered as I do not have enough data.  One can predict the probability of matching based on Step 1 scores or a combination algorithm.

Remember one can not underestimate the importance of data.  According to the NRMP 2009 data the probability of matching in Internal Medicine (IM) is 35% if you have 3 interviews, 50% if you have 5 interviews, 75% if you have 10 interviews.  That makes sense you have to interview to match.  Many people are lucky to get 1 interview which corresponds to a 25% chance of matching in IM.

Regarding Step 1 scores, for those who do interview in IM, the probability of matching in IM with Step 1 200 is 27%, Step 1 of 220 is 45%, 240 is 63%.  Information on step 2 scores is not present as many AMGs don’t take step 2 prior to applying.

What can I do to improve my chances?  Just over half (1092/2113) of those who match do not have any Abstracts, Presentations, or Publications which suggests that if you are strong enough as a candidate, publications/research don’t matter.

The views expressed in this post are those of Kenneth Christopher, MD and do not necessarily reflect the views of Dr. Christopher’s employer Partners HealthCare.

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